A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
